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I want to draw attention to a series of concerning trends that are being overlooked. These trends worry me, especially when considering the long-term negative trajectory of the Anglophone Crisis.

Conflict Spreading Outside the Anglophone Regions

On Sunday, a rare attack occurred outside the Anglophone Regions. According to reports,  a police station and Gendarmerie post in Galim, West Region. The attack killed at least 8, including two policemen and two gendarmes. Firstly, this is another example of the growing reach, ability,  and confidence of separatist groups. To be able to launch an attack some 4 miles into a neighboring region is not the work of an amateur group of ‘ragtag’ rebels. Furthermore, reports describe both targets being hit simultaneously, which shows how this was a well-coordinated, pre-planned attack. I’ve also read accounts that suggest they were deliberately targeting those areas to retrieve weapons and supplies, and video evidence suggests that they were successful in that aim, retrieving multiple AK-variants, FALs and a Beretta PM12 submachine gun. They also took a quantity of body armour and tactical equipment. I have heard suggestions of the existence of some kind Ambazonian ‘Special Forces’ before, and whilst I still think this is largely propaganda, there is clearly a trusted separatist unit capable of performing more sophisticated raids.

Secondly (and more importantly), by its nature the Anglophone Crisis has been limited to only the Anglophone regions of Cameroon. There have been two previous incursions into the neighboring regions, but those were not as sophisticated as Sunday’s attack. Is this a new stage of the conflict, where cross-border raids become more common? Where (and what) is within reach of such raids? If it does become a new dynamic, how would the populations of the adjacent regions respond?

This could be a really significant shift in the crisis, but only time will tell. It certainly feels different to the previous cross-border incidents. This is something to watch.

The Growing Usage of IEDs

Also on Sunday, the Women’s Day Parade in Bamenda was hit by a brutal bomb attack, carried out by separatist forces. 1 soldier was killed with up to 8 other people wounded. Graphic imagery released of the soldiers in medical facilities reveal terrible, life-changing injuries. Separatists have been developing their IED capability over time, with a few videos showing past training and test attempts. At least one government Toyota was hit by a small mine at one point during an ambush, and more recently (and famously), an armoured convoy was hit by a larger IED earlier in 2020. So this is not a ‘new’ thing, but it is the most successful attack thus far.

IEDs are a powerful, deadly tool, and are a cornerstone of modern insurgency. They act as a force multiplier, and they caused the international coalitions in Afghanistan and Iraq to lose hundreds of troops. They accounted for up to 63% of coalition deaths in Iraq by 2007. The stories of British soldiers being killed by IEDs in inadequate ‘Snatch’ Land Rovers will remain etched in the minds of the British defence community for a long time to come. That is the problem with IEDs- they are weapons of terror, and can have a severe political cost. They are indiscriminate weapons, and so will leave anybody in the vicinity- civilian or soldier- dead or with terrible, life-changing injuries. And they can go wrong. That IED planted for an army convoy will still go off if a civilian bus drives over it. That political cost can be both local and international too, as their usage can quickly temper any sympathy from abroad. Boko Haram use IEDs, suicide bombers and the like. Is there a danger of separatist groups becoming not dissimilar to a group they claim to be so different from?

There is also something to be written on the Fulani/Mbororo element, but that will have to wait for another time. 

With consistent violent incidents and clashes between separatist fighters and LRC government forces in recent weeks, the Anglophone crisis shows little evidence of calming down. No meaningful diplomatic solution has been attempted by either side, and targeted killings continue to draw the attention of the international media. It is evident that Biya’s military forces are now under the gaze of the world, with the UN and other organizations making statements on the crisis. International action has not followed, however, and so it is imperative that the ACMP, activists on the ground and the wider Ambazonian diaspora continue to ensure that the situation in Cameroon is not ignored.

Today, the Anglophone Crisis Monitoring Project calls for international mediation between the belligerents in order to avoid a major escalation that is possible to follow in the coming months. ACMP has become aware of unconfirmed plans for escalation by an individual separatist organization or organizations that follow the model of successful insurgencies across the world, involving the attacking and destruction of economically important resource sites in the region. Notably, separatists have already attacked multiple sites of political significance- police facilities etc., however economically vital sites such as major infrastructural routes (train lines), pipelines and other facilities would all be vulnerable under such an initiative. This approach is a logical evolution in the strategy of separatist fighters that do not have the firepower to go toe-to-toe with LRC government forces.

Images of Ambazonian separatists continue to show them using hunting rifles and shotguns, together with occasional Kalashnikov rifles or the Serbian derivatives used by Cameroon’s military, including the Zastava M21. Serbian weapons in separatist’s hands are few and have likely been captured from dead Cameroonian soldiers or government facilities. These weapons remain few and far between, however, and traditional hunting rifles are by far the most common weapon type in the hands of separatists. These weapons are militarily obsolete, and despite the best efforts of some separatists, they are not appropriate for a head-on engagement with Cameroonian forces due to the vast disparity in firepower and equipment.

There is an obvious desire within separatist units for more effective and more advanced weaponry, and ACMP has long considered the reality of this prospect to be highly likely for two reasons. Firstly, there are a number of armed groups operating in the region including Boko Haram, from whom it would be possible to buy weapons fairly easily. Secondly, Cameroon shares a long, porous border with both Chad and the Central African Republic, between which it would be relatively easy to move arms shipments. ACMP has been waiting for evidence and confirmation of intelligence that suggested that an arms shipment had been received, which would indicate an imminent escalation of hostilities.

ACMP can today reveal that we believe this to be the case, with a cache of what are believed to be Chinese Type 56 rifles and other derivatives being received by elements that are sympathetic to the Ambazonian cause, complete with ammunition and magazines. Whether they are currently in the region of the Southern Cameroons is currently unknown. These weapons are very common in conflicts across the world, being Chinese-made versions of the Kalashnikov, but they represent a step-change in capability and firepower for separatist ‘restoration forces’. The issue of LRC armoured vehicles remains, however, occasional images of RPGs have also been noted in the use of restoration forces.

ACMP has been warning and lobbying British and European politicians for a considerable amount of time with the regards to the potential for this conflict to accelerate into a much more serious situation approaching a full-on civil war. Despite our efforts, little to no action has been taken on the international stage to begin resolving this crisis. The Cameroonian military continues to commit unlawful targeted killings and other recorded major incidents. Restoration forces continue to attack facilities and individuals with ties to the Cameroonian government.

This is the most dangerous moment in the Anglophone Crisis to date. In response to continued Cameroonian abuses in the region, separatist elements have acquired vastly more effective weapons, and we stand on the precipice of a very serious war developing in the Anglophone regions of Cameroon. ACMP again repeats its call for an immediate international observer mission excluding France and other involved parties, together with a diplomatic approach aimed at mediating between the two sides.

The warnings of the ACMP have been left unheeded- and so now we are headed into a new stage of the Anglophone Crisis.